By Brian Nichiporuk, John Gordon
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Extra resources for Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army Modernization
Army XXI forces would be reduced significantly. Major increases would be required in CSS capabilities. R ARROYO CENTER This Army is some 10 percent smaller than today’s force. It has upgraded several of its divisions to post–Army XXI standards. Medium forces are favored in this future due to their ability to rapidly deploy and operate in areas where the infrastructure is relatively poor. The airborne and air assault organizations have been retained for intervention missions, but have been held at Army XXI levels of modernization.
Those SOF elements would require specialized capabilities to cope with various types of threats posed by transnational entities. 39 Modernization Implications Chaos-Anarchy Overall impact on Army Mod Plan = Moderate (reallocation) Objective Interim Force Force Army XXI SOF WMD TMD Defense AVN Deep Strike CSS C4ISR Insights: • • • • • • • Chaotic world, many “failed states” Active Army is 10% smaller than today Army XXI forces significantly reduced, medium units predominate Much greater counter-WMD requirement, TMD may be reduced slightly Aviation refocused toward lift as opposed to attack SOF, CSS, and C4ISR all increased, probably with focus toward MOUT Deep strike reduced somewhat, refocused toward MOUT requirements R ARROYO CENTER The Chaos-Anarchy future probably represents the worst case for the world as a whole.
We determined that TMD, aviation, and deep strike could remain at generally the levels of today, although there would be a need for some reprioritization. This could include refocusing deep strike on missions to engage hostile groups that have been located inside urban areas rather 37 than striking conventional enemy land forces at depth. Similarly, resources for Army aviation would probably be refocused from attack to lift. In our estimation, the active force associated with this future would be some 40 percent smaller than today’s.
Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army Modernization by Brian Nichiporuk, John Gordon